Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf651be941b3a31fd3670f5d040a59e9198217a500decfe4fcd153a2d26626ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paris FCof AS Monaco FC, Paris FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed AS Monaco FC | 6c | 6,154$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.44 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed AS Monaco FC | 29c | 1,321$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Paris FC | 71c | 398$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AS Monaco FC | 11c | 378.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed AS Monaco FC | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Paris FC | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Paris FC | 71c | 238.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Paris FC | 73c | 167.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed AS Monaco FC | 26c | 149.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed AS Monaco FC | 26c | 147.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked AS Monaco FC | 28c | 136.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed AS Monaco FC | 11c | 101.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Paris FC | 72c | 85.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…2d14backed Paris FC | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Paris FC | 79c | 56.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Paris FC | 73c | 54.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…b78ebacked AS Monaco FC | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed AS Monaco FC | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked AS Monaco FC | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed AS Monaco FC | 28c | 39.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paris FC | 71c | 37.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Paris FC | 73c | 34.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Paris FC | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Paris FC | 73c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Paris FC | 74c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Paris FC | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Paris FC | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Paris FC | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Paris FC | 80c | 18.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Paris FC | 80c | 18.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Paris FC | 80c | 18.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Paris FC | 74c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Paris FC | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)this page
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.