Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecea852ce2a850d7d173b787af05738215ad0dbbf2c1bf6c150291dce5b09d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 2,336$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.32 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08e…2f34backed Under | 23c | 2,085$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 46c | 411.57$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 5c | 402.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 35c | 324.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 35c | 292.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 65c | 195.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 21c | 145.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 64c | 138.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 80c | 92.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 71.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Under | 65c | 58.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 50.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…a9c1backed Under | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 60c | 44.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 30.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 64c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Over | 76c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.