Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5867ce2a65f24b631b59f70fa1064ed9af8bc1f099b9dd01d0644364a4830a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 6c | 2,212$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 2,087$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.84 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over | 59c | 1,653$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb08e…2f34backed Under | 5c | 1,102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…31a0backed Under | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 567.12$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 42c | 528.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 42c | 527.9$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.72 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked Under | 44c | 441.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 361.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 256.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 229.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 179.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 59c | 163.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 43c | 123.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…85aebacked Under | 42c | 103.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…251abacked Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…e5d8backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 30c | 66.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 60c | 65.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…1339backed Over | 59c | 63.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Under | 42c | 62.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…0748backed Over | 60c | 62.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…0774backed Over | 59c | 52.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 41c | 47.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Under | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 59c | 40.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 41c | 38.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed Under | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Over | 59c | 32.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…0d57backed Over | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba98…ea58backed Under | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Under | 42c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 44c | 25.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…126cbacked Over | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 58c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.