TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x740c…6d10backed Under2c9,165$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over14c2,341$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.4110418.3%19 W · 85 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5f…cdfcbacked Under27c2,027$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Over50c1,937$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under55c1,894$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.192853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over75c1,763$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.5922753.3%121 W · 106 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over53c1,376$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.513033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under51c1,307$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.9383939.8%334 W · 505 L-21.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under51c1,264$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.783,44943%1,484 W · 1,965 L+32.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over52c1,123$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.3117731.1%55 W · 122 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Under76c1,093$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.4460147.9%288 W · 313 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Under2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under59c994.7$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.9313251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under5c991.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.661657.8%356 W · 260 L+42.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under55c855.7$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over53c799.53$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5223255.6%129 W · 103 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over56c796.73$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.3449057.1%280 W · 210 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over51c679.21$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.814440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under72c678.8$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.44,74047%2,230 W · 2,510 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed Under55c517.21$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Over17c497.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.89837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under45c467.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.345841%188 W · 270 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under41c425.09$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6112626.2%33 W · 93 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20dc…f74cbacked Over48c399.67$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.853839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under64c397.6$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3592345.5%420 W · 503 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Under76c387.92$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8240%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7eb3…8e52backed Over51c327.28$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.374544.4%20 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+39.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Over43c324.69$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.082259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under47c270.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4120241.6%84 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Under75c262.67$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1971060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked Over51c259.84$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12012875%96 W · 32 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over28c249.89$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7817562.9%110 W · 65 L+32.1wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+64.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Over53c220.57$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.491952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over18c207.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2699933.4%334 W · 665 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5634…d81abacked Under51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.063444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over49c188.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.15547.3%26 W · 29 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Under27c185.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.914252.4%22 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick35cpaid+32.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed Over53c180.53$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.676259.7%37 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over15c161.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8749228.9%142 W · 350 L-0.6wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc582…853cbacked Over10c160$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.68510.6%9 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under52c157.68$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5116348.5%79 W · 84 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under67c145.87$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8340%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over43c134.57$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.81,65543.8%725 W · 930 L-22.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Under75c132.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5519461.9%120 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a3…fd93backed Under70c130.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under70c115.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3930%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under51c114.95$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2819953.3%106 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Over79c108.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.83740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under55c107$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.420142.8%86 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under48c99.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2922553.8%121 W · 104 L+18.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23f7…cb68backed Over62c97.72$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Under50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Over27c96.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.642339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d6a…26f7backed Over51c95.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.631533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over31c87.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.525133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Over49c79.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.364358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over56c77.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over50c77.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.816040%64 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over58c65.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.563366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…32f8backed Over53c64.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.69475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Under46c62.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.933262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under79c60.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.874457.5%428 W · 316 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Over52c59.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82035%7 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over32c59.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7719345.1%87 W · 106 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x669d…f27abacked Under47c58.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Under49c58.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.651283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over27c52.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.358146.9%38 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under48c50.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.222326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Over80c50.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.246170.5%43 W · 18 L+9.9wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+27.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7ce4…da39backed Over48c49.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cd…a98dbacked Over62c48.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce2…9787backed Over31c44.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.883100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+265.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a6…aed7backed Under31c42.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.443262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92e…d539backed Under75c39.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56df…edc2backed Under70c33.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x362d…0c58backed Over50c29.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+155.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under46c24.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3620253.5%108 W · 94 L-0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e00…12cebacked Under51c24.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc33…729cbacked Over47c23.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafcf…72f6backed Under62c19.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931330.8%4 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick62cpaid-58%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Under71c18.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3117061.2%104 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.