TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x56df…edc2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 57 out of 100; worst Serie A at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4833.3%16 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mauthausen: Miguel Damas vs Jaime Fariabacked Miguel Damas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Sofia Costoulasbacked Sofia Costoulas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.26
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Boltbacked Keegan Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.2
Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Rada Zolotarevabacked Hanyu Guo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.84
Huzhou: Xiyu Wang vs Polona Hercogbacked Polona Hercog · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.99
Huzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Katarzyna Kawabacked Varvara Panshina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Cagliari: Zachary Svajda vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Zachary Svajda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Kaitlin Quevedobacked Xinyu Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+134.5%+$55.8
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodarbacked Vit Kopriva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruudbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+436.1%+$65.41
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Filsbacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Huzhou: Sara Saito vs Xinxin Yaobacked Sara Saito · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakinabacked Anastasia Potapova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+498%+$70.97
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensikbacked Karen Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.24
Saint-Malo: Lulu Sun vs Yue Yuanbacked Yue Yuan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$142.03
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Navabacked Emilio Nava · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moellerbacked Elmer Moeller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.25
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyukbacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$64.41
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmezbacked Solana Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$363.99
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmannbacked Yannick Hanfmann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.8
Madrid Open: Laura Samson vs Anna Bondarbacked Anna Bondar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$54.95
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimovabacked Kamilla Rakhimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.52
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtsevabacked Moyuka Uchijima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.95
Oeiras 4: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Yue Yuanbacked Yue Yuan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$32.75
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.39
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.9
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+175.2%+$152.8
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.88
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.49
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+400%+$120
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.7
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+210.4%+$94.54
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$63
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$38.99
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$39
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+313.3%+$44.88
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$37
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$44.8
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.7
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$10.89
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.43
All 25 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.25
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+149.8%+$143.67
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.35
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+247.8%+$28.5
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.74
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+111.5%+$18.45
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+79.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.8
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+153.1%+$236.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$25.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gilbert Burns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.