Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd200ee69e28d6a72a30c868c3e8a06f476021ce30621eac77ecbbac738738789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,997$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 2c | 747.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 17c | 564.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 543$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 5c | 466.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 10c | 401.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 387.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 320$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 294.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 12c | 291.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Yes | 17c | 263.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 247.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 235.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 191.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 190.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 10c | 174.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 147.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 17c | 133.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 16c | 132.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 16c | 118.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 113.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 17c | 110.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 13c | 98.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 15c | 87.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 86.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 55.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 26c | 54.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 78c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.