Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf16c49693316774ea6523e2a3e4e47165ce7cfb9aacf299e6696c3f9cc81a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 10c | 1,927$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 902.8$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.46 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 731.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 705.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 8c | 604.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 485.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 406$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 367.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 8c | 357.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 3c | 334.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 9c | 332.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 311.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 76c | 294.2$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 66c | 286.8$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 273.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 220.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 48c | 198.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 52c | 174$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 167.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 166.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…ad9dbacked Yes | 42c | 156.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 147.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 142.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 78c | 128.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 43c | 128.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 16c | 113.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 38c | 112.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 28c | 100.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 38c | 99.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 98.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Yes | 47c | 98.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 48c | 98.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 45c | 95.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 61c | 94.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 33c | 85.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 78.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 36c | 77.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 72.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 69c | 70.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 37c | 68.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 65.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 18c | 64.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 47c | 60.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 56.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes | 35c | 53.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 37c | 50.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 35c | 49.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 50c | 49.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 62c | 42.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 69c | 41.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 35c | 40.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…1d00backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 69c | 39.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 39.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 39.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…0d07backed Yes | 49c | 38.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 62c | 38.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed No | 75c | 37.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 52c | 36.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…d6a4backed No | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 38c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed Yes | 46c | 25.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 48c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…59a3backed No | 63c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 55c | 21.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 64c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.