Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736f108e1cb15cb59f73fc31d8946d61dff7c67c3492b220a22f451505353ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 0c | 10,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 4c | 2,416$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,523$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,304$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 1,016$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 6c | 983.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 912.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 8c | 823$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 809.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 11c | 682.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 2c | 599.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 9c | 585.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 7c | 572.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 10c | 526.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 500.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 479.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 6c | 430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 7c | 424.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 389.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 6c | 350.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 6c | 302$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 11c | 295.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 283.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 6c | 228.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 209$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 7c | 205.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Yes | 9c | 202.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 6c | 162.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 10c | 157.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 9c | 147.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 8c | 146.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 8c | 138.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 12c | 98.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 15c | 71.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.