TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6086…a5f9backed No1c3,609$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0531050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed No1c2,503$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No1c1,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0d…d2d9backed No2c929$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No12c907.95$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked No3c787.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5120338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes53c750.13$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.794934.7%17 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No9c701.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5374926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No2c694.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No13c524.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes78c429.82$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.71,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No9c416$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes49c387.87$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0324029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes79c292.47$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0155336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes44c243.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982e…f467backed No15c196$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.821520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c171.66$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.415,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c164.07$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.434,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes35c155.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.511330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x662e…4b20backed No25c152.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1612055%66 W · 54 L+16.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No23c149.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3538655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c149.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.342,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5198…4964backed Yes77c127.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes41c115.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.463050%15 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…4444backed Yes44c114.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.889728.9%28 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe30…24d7backed No24c111.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c109.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.39,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes46c107.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x836f…6bd0backed Yes39c100.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.151833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x577e…7e31backed Yes41c98.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.391136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+198.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No44c96.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4910163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Yes35c96.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.537541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes47c94.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes38c93.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.242,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c89.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No57c87.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f7…8bf1backed No59c86.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.132060%12 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes37c79.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.317728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes32c77.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.463636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes43c77.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.264146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes37c75.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.633836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c5ebacked No57c71.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No27c69.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No64c68.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes37c67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.219331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x467a…e448backed Yes68c64.43$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.893650%18 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd918…aa30backed Yes27c60.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.453215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes37c55.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.986426.6%17 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8a…9362backed Yes38c54.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.867529.3%22 W · 53 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes35c53.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3430131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56df…edc2backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes64c49.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.871,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No51c47.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0616348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No55c47.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No25c46.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7316724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked No26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.725335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6b…c559backed Yes40c44.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.882832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7834…4322backed Yes33c44.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.915030%15 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes34c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3862137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No61c40.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9937533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.647423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfba7…69fbbacked No62c39.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes36c39.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9847432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes80c36.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3510645.3%48 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes47c36.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked No69c34.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.073164.5%20 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed No68c31.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3810652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52a…43dfbacked No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.526933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe03a…439fbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.718910.6%20 W · 169 L-87.5wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-84%equal weight5-0.41 edge/pick
0x1173…eb6ebacked No44c28.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ee…5b9fbacked No62c27.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeac…2970backed No65c27.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No72c25.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1128954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa0…17c7backed Yes51c20.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x984d…08f3backed Yes74c18.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No63c17.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb740…eabbbacked No64c16.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6223923.4%56 W · 183 L-17.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No79c13.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8412564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.