TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Bolt

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Boltof Keegan Smith, Alex Bolt
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Smith23c19,883$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550.368,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Alex Bolt70c4,576$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.742,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alex Bolt77c4,455$3,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.868,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Alex Bolt69c4,363$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.8594068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Keegan Smith33c4,250$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.076336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Alex Bolt65c3,100$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.871,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Alex Bolt67c2,988$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.9962061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alex Bolt68c2,889$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.244,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Keegan Smith40c2,501$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Keegan Smith36c2,344$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.741,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Alex Bolt68c2,209$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.7615862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Keegan Smith36c2,122$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.925158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith29c1,860$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.916,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Keegan Smith30c1,612$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.984,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd456…aba4backed Alex Bolt67c1,600$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5282050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Keegan Smith27c1,483$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.931,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Keegan Smith33c1,395$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.4427148%130 W · 141 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Keegan Smith33c1,316$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.526535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Alex Bolt72c1,237$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2780341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Alex Bolt66c1,208$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.7247252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Keegan Smith35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42027733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7402…8020backed Keegan Smith42c1,195$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.067526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Keegan Smith38c1,136$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43030744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Keegan Smith27c1,100$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30131736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Keegan Smith20c1,098$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.388235.4%29 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Keegan Smith24c1,089$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.482,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Keegan Smith35c1,045$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.8297745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa475…bfe7backed Keegan Smith35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.931010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Alex Bolt65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35014443.1%62 W · 82 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Alex Bolt66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34041060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Keegan Smith36c943.76$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.754143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Keegan Smith22c896.57$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.633,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Keegan Smith36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alex Bolt71c813.29$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.134,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Bolt67c800$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.539,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd3…fed4backed Alex Bolt68c775.77$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.777968.4%54 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Keegan Smith35c711.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Alex Bolt57c668$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.244,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Keegan Smith32c652.34$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.753,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Alex Bolt79c633.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6821454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Keegan Smith32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Keegan Smith33c591.35$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.144,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Alex Bolt66c569.23$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5415040%60 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Alex Bolt65c544.76$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5333346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Alex Bolt66c541.12$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8840548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alex Bolt65c524.42$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.541,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Keegan Smith32c522.28$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16760641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Keegan Smith34c499.96$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.991,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Alex Bolt66c496$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.5150644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Keegan Smith34c485.04$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4646435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed Alex Bolt68c440.67$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.76349.2%31 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Keegan Smith27c428.41$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.832,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Keegan Smith29c419.35$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12057321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x444a…07adbacked Keegan Smith33c416.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.591225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Keegan Smith33c396.42$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.827,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Keegan Smith33c349.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Keegan Smith31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Alex Bolt63c318.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.274957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Alex Bolt65c307.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7723159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e35…fe8cbacked Alex Bolt66c301.54$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.544252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Keegan Smith20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6058438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Keegan Smith19c288.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.754734%16 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Alex Bolt66c278.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.97,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed Alex Bolt65c278$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.31540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Alex Bolt63c266.58$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1480153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x963f…4487backed Alex Bolt69c259.66$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.253773%27 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Alex Bolt79c254.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2525957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Alex Bolt68c250.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3262952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alex Bolt68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.044,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc510…5c9fbacked Alex Bolt67c246.27$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.277360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Alex Bolt56c239.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.645445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Alex Bolt56c212$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2856744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…d51ebacked Keegan Smith24c211.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2714325.9%37 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Alex Bolt67c210$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.336640.7%149 W · 217 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Alex Bolt79c202.75$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7517440.2%70 W · 104 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Keegan Smith5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027940.1%112 W · 167 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alex Bolt73c197$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.491,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alex Bolt75c188.53$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.695,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x018b…5372backed Alex Bolt68c172.27$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.176662.1%41 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Keegan Smith30c168.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9863052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Alex Bolt61c167.77$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7721845.9%100 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Alex Bolt71c167.26$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.051,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Keegan Smith17c164.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284060%24 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Keegan Smith17c164$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.562,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Keegan Smith19c157.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3075312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed Alex Bolt65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8535157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Keegan Smith35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.586835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f10…0cb9backed Keegan Smith34c146$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85db…d0e7backed Alex Bolt70c143.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.215662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Alex Bolt70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8673458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56df…edc2backed Keegan Smith30c142.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24833.3%16 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc10d…e679backed Keegan Smith35c142$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73842.1%16 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9d…4a77backed Alex Bolt70c137.02$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Keegan Smith30c133.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.561,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Bolt78c125$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.57,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Keegan Smith44c111.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0925245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Keegan Smith27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Keegan Smith22c107.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651675%12 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+51.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeebe…72f2backed Keegan Smith21c106.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6519926.6%53 W · 146 L-13.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x784e…6029backed Alex Bolt67c104.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.