Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ccc169c57072a5656b9a42bbb19266edd5d474bedbcfd8c87b4096ed0fb310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 1,021$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 964.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 9c | 509.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 356.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 265.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 254.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Yes | 15c | 231.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 215.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 203.46$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 31c | 193.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 11c | 155.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 148.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 129.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 38c | 121.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed No | 73c | 121.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 84.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 79.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 69c | 72.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 66.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 76c | 64.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 31c | 44.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 38.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed No | 69c | 31.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 73c | 30.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 27.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 71c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.