Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede3ef79b675262b8c3901973a8d2d3c20a3c932fb02a11d57e95e1133c7ac86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 12c | 911.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 768.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 712.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 4c | 599.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 7c | 571.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 3c | 526.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 8c | 390.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 387.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 344.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 75c | 321.39$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 11c | 293.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 11c | 258.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 17c | 255.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 241.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 228.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 226.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 199.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 11c | 199.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 26c | 190.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 168.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 11c | 165.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed Yes | 15c | 165.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 162.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 8c | 136.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 9c | 121.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 19c | 116.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 19c | 111.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 32c | 111.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed Yes | 20c | 105.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 101.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 31c | 97.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 12c | 95.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 25c | 94.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 16c | 86.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 13c | 80.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 14c | 76.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 20c | 75.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 21c | 66.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 18c | 65.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 20c | 60.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 20c | 59.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 57.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 77c | 56.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 30c | 54.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 26c | 49.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 28c | 48.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 22c | 48.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 47.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 46.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 69c | 41.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…325ebacked No | 71c | 35.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 80c | 34.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 77c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 76c | 29.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 28.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 68c | 28.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b95…4cdabacked No | 73c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.