Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08019879e69ab0102eedfb2462cea7feec99ef35ab88786abba18f4e452e8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 1,312$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.26 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 502.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 30c | 441.87$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.74 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 3c | 435.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 75c | 387.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 28c | 336.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.51 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 316.94$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 281.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 275.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 213.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed Yes | 25c | 210.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 198.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 170.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 162.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 149.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 146.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 32c | 138.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 133.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 129.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…c73fbacked No | 30c | 126.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 125.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 22c | 124.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked No | 79c | 124.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…56b5backed Yes | 80c | 119.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 24c | 114.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 113.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 64c | 111.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 106.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 71c | 104.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 104.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 76c | 101.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 25c | 99.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 25c | 99.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 79c | 99.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 28c | 98.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 91.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 69c | 91.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 56c | 89.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 80c | 88.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 71c | 83.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 83.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 21c | 80.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 79.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 79.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 78.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 52c | 76.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 75.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 72.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 71.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 68c | 70.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 69.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 65.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 65.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 64.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 63.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…8799backed Yes | 24c | 50.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 50.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 48.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 39c | 47.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 23c | 46.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 43.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 42.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 32c | 33.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 68c | 32.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 31.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 76c | 31.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 30.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…c553backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed No | 79c | 24.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 66c | 24.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…53f6backed No | 79c | 23.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 71c | 23.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 21.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 77c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 80c | 18.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…7990backed No | 80c | 17.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 79c | 16.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 73c | 15.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.