Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b656a43791711588d806ea5279621677953b23ae29aed422d4c7d0e66c3d3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 606.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed Yes | 18c | 602.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 3c | 449.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 303.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 290.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 62c | 237.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 233.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 20c | 227.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 14c | 200.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 199.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 19c | 197.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 31c | 190.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 10c | 188.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 29c | 187.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 73c | 169.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 64c | 149.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 146.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 22c | 139.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 22c | 139.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 134.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 29c | 116.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 112.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 107.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 55c | 106.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 71c | 103.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 16c | 99.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 95.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 95.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 38c | 94.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 94.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 20c | 90.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 25c | 85.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 21c | 78.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 63c | 76.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 45c | 72.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 74c | 72.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 68.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 26c | 66.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 59c | 63.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 61c | 62.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 62.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 55.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 52.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 57c | 49.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 70c | 48.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 46c | 47.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…e4eabacked Yes | 35c | 45.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 65c | 44.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 51c | 43.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 43.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 44c | 42.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 75c | 41.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 43c | 40.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 79c | 39.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 37.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5bebbacked Yes | 63c | 30.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3142…7012backed Yes | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 60c | 29.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 64c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 70c | 23.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 77c | 22.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 65c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…a53cbacked Yes | 78c | 15.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 79c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.