TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Huzhou: Sara Saito vs Xinxin Yao

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xinxin Yaoof Sara Saito, Xinxin Yao
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf504…132ebacked Sara Saito0c23,583$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.31741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sara Saito42c23,478$9,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,866.458,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Xinxin Yao58c11,038$6,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,655.8611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Xinxin Yao62c3,821$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.437,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Xinxin Yao60c2,894$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.5227846%128 W · 150 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Xinxin Yao68c2,090$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.874,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sara Saito42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134f…2b5dbacked Sara Saito25c1,912$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.2717044.1%75 W · 95 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Xinxin Yao46c1,753$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.821,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Xinxin Yao46c1,687$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.234,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sara Saito34c1,426$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.613,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Sara Saito46c1,141$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.126,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sara Saito79c1,139$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.7254345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Xinxin Yao68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32030857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Sara Saito59c991.93$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.247444.6%33 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Xinxin Yao63c885.5$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.6385348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Xinxin Yao38c844.88$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.120844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Xinxin Yao64c794.13$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.171,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Xinxin Yao44c790.22$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.811,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Xinxin Yao44c724.88$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.8457447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc70d…a6f9backed Xinxin Yao73c673.84$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.941250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Sara Saito52c665.55$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.455,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Xinxin Yao49c657.63$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.072,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Sara Saito37c650.14$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.551,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Sara Saito15c633.73$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.920412.7%26 W · 178 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Xinxin Yao49c593.51$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.691,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Xinxin Yao53c592.51$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.139,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Xinxin Yao53c543.14$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3825134.3%86 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Xinxin Yao76c501.59$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6521567.4%145 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Sara Saito27c476.76$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5938013.9%53 W · 327 L-38.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Xinxin Yao45c429.35$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1414255.6%79 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbb…c0fdbacked Sara Saito64c314.58$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.679856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x688c…2482backed Sara Saito34c314.38$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd93…0370backed Xinxin Yao65c305.04$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.83977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56df…edc2backed Sara Saito30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904833.3%16 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Xinxin Yao50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.536548.2%176 W · 189 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Sara Saito10c261.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1322113.6%30 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Sara Saito58c248.6$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5962140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Sara Saito59c248.09$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3154249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Sara Saito36c218.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.364,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Sara Saito71c196.05$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.192,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Sara Saito22c194.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.229519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee6e…ad3dbacked Sara Saito13c191.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Xinxin Yao31c186.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.964143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Sara Saito69c186.35$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5342344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Xinxin Yao43c185.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.516136%58 W · 103 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7061…b4aebacked Sara Saito36c182.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513856.5%78 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xinxin Yao55c180.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.74,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Xinxin Yao19c167.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.581028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7101…884bbacked Xinxin Yao47c165.48$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.066100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+90%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Xinxin Yao43c162.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7825245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Sara Saito45c160.28$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.11,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c4…f100backed Xinxin Yao66c156.81$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.471291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Xinxin Yao62c151.56$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.341,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa888…e98cbacked Sara Saito35c147.87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7416459.1%97 W · 67 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Xinxin Yao50c146.05$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.310057%57 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Xinxin Yao45c141.72$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.351,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Sara Saito52c138.89$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1979951.1%408 W · 391 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sara Saito79c135.04$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.037,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Xinxin Yao76c123.8$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3268857.3%394 W · 294 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ae…3a05backed Sara Saito59c114.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.84344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Xinxin Yao63c110.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0160355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x504b…b939backed Xinxin Yao44c110.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.726048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf390…d1bbbacked Sara Saito29c95.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.595433.3%18 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Sara Saito65c90.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7468157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…00bebacked Xinxin Yao54c88.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.153250%16 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ac…e615backed Sara Saito33c86.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Sara Saito73c84.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8870465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c7…febcbacked Xinxin Yao69c83.23$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.737474.3%55 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Xinxin Yao80c81.78$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4739…a1c1backed Sara Saito42c80.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7822642%95 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Xinxin Yao63c79.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8943951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Sara Saito62c79.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8663052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b67…f13cbacked Xinxin Yao36c78.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.315030%15 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Sara Saito46c78.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.84,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d04…022bbacked Xinxin Yao14c75.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2514531.7%46 W · 99 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Sara Saito32c74.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9810742.1%45 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa4…6549backed Sara Saito34c74.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x165b…711cbacked Sara Saito55c69.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2126953.2%143 W · 126 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…9b4bbacked Xinxin Yao46c69.41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.483063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Xinxin Yao71c69.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0736264.6%234 W · 128 L-1.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c62…3d61backed Sara Saito27c64.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Xinxin Yao57c64.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.562339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f96…e7f0backed Sara Saito30c63.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.162050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Sara Saito48c60.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.382,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…35dcbacked Xinxin Yao41c59.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.293135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Xinxin Yao68c57.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e4…177ebacked Sara Saito36c55.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1f…a168backed Sara Saito35c55.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.221428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Xinxin Yao31c52.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.521,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Xinxin Yao73c52.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sara Saito31c52.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.983,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Xinxin Yao56c52.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9533655.1%185 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a8…cbeabacked Sara Saito71c47.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.648263.4%52 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Sara Saito53c45.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.359440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Xinxin Yao46c45.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4576853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Xinxin Yao42c45.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1824826.2%65 W · 183 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Xinxin Yao29c45.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.181,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Xinxin Yao60c44.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5613033.8%44 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49aa…b3bbbacked Sara Saito45c42.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.