TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee6e…ad3d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Mls, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Mls at 52 out of 100; worst Serie A at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT3644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.59
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.61
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.13
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.4
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+86%+$52.46
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$59.89
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.51
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$47.56
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.32
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$142
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$36.6
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.48
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.69
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.3
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$16.93
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,037.56
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.65
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.52
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+126.2%+$166.55
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$91
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.67
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$149.8
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+73.4%+$62.25
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.43
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.87
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.6
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.31
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.99
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$71.21
All 24 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$144
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.37
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$53.45
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$49.6
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$82.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Huzhou: Sara Saito vs Xinxin Yaobacked Sara Saito · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.