TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed No3c41,128$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.2516045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed No2c27,220$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.0710641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes38c17,500$6,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,850.896761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No62c16,569$10,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,230.9269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No62c15,278$9,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,396.361,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes39c12,821$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,820.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,339.982857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No62c6,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7205461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No62c5,300$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.895655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed No63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5202552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes38c3,821$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.0334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No62c3,794$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.98448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No9c3,767$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.1748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No34c3,053$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.557255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked No12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No62c2,319$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.081,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes37c2,297$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.317549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No25c2,244$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2464043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No64c2,222$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.084965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No62c2,120$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.5638748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2409854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed No62c1,571$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.184050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No62c1,560$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.7828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No62c1,538$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.1829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1af…c4d1backed No62c1,395$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes62c1,238$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.232,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Yes38c1,035$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked No36c1,020$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.054436.4%16 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe54…3eddbacked No13c961.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No61c914.66$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.0126445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No24c881.27$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.961,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked No62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes38c705.34$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.341747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Yes38c657.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.749551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebae…fb79backed Yes37c645.95$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No40c620.55$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.597335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd733…b175backed Yes39c611$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.711369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+60.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No62c560.03$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35027138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No63c546.63$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0242046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.542250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.321931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+84.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes37c526.3$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.573345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3158950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3158949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No63c460$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.88851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b6…f8c7backed Yes39c458$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.38580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed No62c385.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3110244.1%45 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No63c371$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7315747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2af…3880backed No3c369.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.983033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No8c326.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.274153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes37c301$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…4529backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No63c280.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.227538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…77babacked Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Yes38c270$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x124b…bd60backed No6c262.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+70.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…37ccbacked Yes37c249$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No62c240.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9720845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No19c211.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1439857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes37c203.85$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.437646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No63c201.18$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7d…2669backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7011539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked No61c199.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.998756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No62c178.95$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No7c174.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.397455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No62c173.85$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7920548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes38c166.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2610647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa8…b6d7backed Yes61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked No62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x87e4…e722backed Yes68c159.58$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…0c2cbacked No63c159.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc10d…e679backed Yes38c144.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.741838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No62c142$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.731,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Yes75c139.47$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5810946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4791…07f8backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-76.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes65c128$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Yes38c125$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.53129%9 W · 22 L-5.5wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Yes38c122.37$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8717852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes56c121.09$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8421355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce8…fc49backed No62c120.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed No41c117.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.36355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Yes38c113.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2895…2c58backed Yes38c111.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.025100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes38c109.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.191435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Yes59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.695466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6e…ad3dbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes37c99.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9820251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Yes37c99.81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes37c94.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.594837.5%18 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed No18c85.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.161963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked No23c83.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb1…fa48backed No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes63c77.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.785444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No17c77.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4112141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked No65c72.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.915048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.