TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked No66c31,679$20,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,776.351,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Yes35c18,370$6,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,344.051330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Yes33c15,334$5,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,136.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes33c13,505$4,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,456.369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef5…dc05backed Yes35c11,181$3,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6404264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Yes33c7,058$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.154050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes4c4,980$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.242,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa2b…5dfebacked No67c4,800$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5841050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No66c4,669$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.455461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes1c4,538$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0153140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes16c4,281$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6768932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23ef…1d4cbacked No65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f3…c9d2backed Yes35c2,403$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes4c2,400$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No67c2,084$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.6712651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed No66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6801533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes33c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Yes34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003941%16 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No80c1,450$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.063,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes2c1,318$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+80%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc68a…07f0backed Yes36c1,264$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed No66c1,199$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.582050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Yes34c1,169$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.6150%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x70f2…dc1bbacked Yes1c1,034$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes33c999.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.995655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No65c999.96$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.993554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes4c969.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.061,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3983…4550backed Yes16c932.41$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No66c799.93$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes34c735.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Yes34c638.38$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Yes34c633.86$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed No66c633$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.114259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a3…c186backed No67c597.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No66c530.47$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.391,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes15c517.73$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9264043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f83…465dbacked Yes7c508$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1708950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked No66c497.36$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.255455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No66c478.37$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.658949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No66c460$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.48851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No66c399.97$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9928755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Yes36c356.21$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.631741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes16c343.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes35c316.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.227538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…70c5backed No68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No66c289.89$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7065…5292backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes34c242$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No66c226$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.848448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No66c201.51$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes16c189.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb6…bc8cbacked Yes36c176.13$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58be…2517backed Yes23c171.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick28cpaid-84.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x694c…eb70backed Yes35c171.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5217547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No66c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7542046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b4…73e0backed Yes14c143.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes35c142.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9915048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes34c135.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7426445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes33c126$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.581,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked No66c122.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.57254.2%39 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No67c120.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.254057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed No66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Yes35c111.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e5b…292bbacked No67c101.49$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3410244.1%45 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5c…ab00backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked No68c99.84$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.091384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No66c99.31$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.717852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed No67c96$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No68c92.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.619476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed No67c84.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.871145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c78.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3711447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Yes35c76.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.776844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xced7…b7b5backed No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.92259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes34c69.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7416343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed No66c69.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Yes34c67.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.831533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2568…ef92backed No67c64.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.713259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x677e…21b3backed Yes34c62.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed No67c61.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.292751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012346.3%57 W · 66 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes33c58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8511956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bdf…5761backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…44efbacked Yes34c56.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked No65c53.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.615100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+110.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed No66c51.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.663441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Yes33c50.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8712056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7520251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a16…5f47backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176055%33 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Yes34c48.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.255251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Yes35c46.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.