Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40da05e9dc90f684c049e14b63839b415f98338bf919e402ce6ef2a9f90759e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Yes | 29c | 10,345$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 8,748$6,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.6 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 76c | 5,210$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.16 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 71c | 3,929$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.67 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 17c | 2,187$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.11 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,640$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 1,321$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…2040backed Yes | 29c | 1,115$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 5c | 916.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 6c | 899.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 70c | 726.09$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.83 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 704$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.16 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 71c | 639.98$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Yes | 29c | 604.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 577.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 9c | 434.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 29c | 433.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…5577backed Yes | 29c | 431.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed No | 71c | 422.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 71c | 354.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 71c | 350.14$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 29c | 312.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 70c | 311.27$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 8c | 308.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…589dbacked Yes | 29c | 304.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 5c | 253.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 71c | 246.48$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 234.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb804…cd66backed Yes | 7c | 228.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 199.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 183.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 30c | 180.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 168.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 24c | 164.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 147.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 78c | 145$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 110.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 79c | 95.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 90.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 62.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 72c | 56.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 25c | 44.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 70c | 40.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…6c2ebacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 71c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…7d51backed Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 71c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 72c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 76c | 24.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 70c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 73c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…8754backed No | 73c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.