Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd3e232ebef5079ff39bdb83bbedddb78e3c7d67253a5987aeefd7f6480519a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 21,055$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,544$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 44c | 1,384$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.21 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 54c | 747.98$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.81 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 40c | 632.39$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 529.5$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 419$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 407.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 56c | 406.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 57c | 368.57$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.31 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 34c | 363.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 341.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 304$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 5c | 298.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 65c | 277.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 258.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed No | 40c | 239.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 221.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked No | 47c | 201.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 50c | 194.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 15c | 189.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 76c | 178.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 68c | 174.14$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 16c | 162.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 160.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 79c | 151.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 16c | 145.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 39c | 137.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 131.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 24c | 127.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 55c | 114.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 54c | 111.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 47c | 109.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 99.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 89.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 87.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 51c | 86.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 42c | 82.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 50c | 74.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 48c | 69.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 44c | 68.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 53c | 65.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 56c | 65.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 65.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 43c | 65.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 64.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 43c | 63.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 62.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 49c | 58.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…1c09backed Yes | 50c | 57.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…d3a0backed Yes | 54c | 54.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 46c | 53.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…0acbbacked Yes | 52c | 53.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 51c | 51.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…26c0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 49.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 39c | 48.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 48.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 38c | 48.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 41c | 46.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 37c | 44.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 44.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 50c | 44.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7ca1backed No | 49c | 44.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 50c | 41.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 44c | 40.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 40.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 50c | 38.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…c056backed Yes | 67c | 35.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…49a7backed Yes | 52c | 34.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…5c42backed Yes | 38c | 34.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 31c | 33.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 60c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 61c | 19.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8539…033abacked No | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ec…4d4cbacked No | 56c | 18.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…e8dbbacked Yes | 67c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.