Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cca4ffa523640a8130e9d460f49b7f5105ccd8cf0228a8b65ee806ffea88ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,576$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 0c | 6,437$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 3c | 2,813$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 17c | 1,496$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 1,261$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.76 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 26c | 943.34$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.27 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 74c | 292.13$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 17c | 290.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 28c | 275.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 26c | 272.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 7c | 272.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 19c | 265.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 73c | 229.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 12c | 205.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 202.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed Yes | 37c | 198.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 192.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 35c | 178.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 28c | 176.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 154.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8521backed No | 68c | 149.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed No | 67c | 149.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 129.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 113.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c9…3db2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes | 11c | 97.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 76c | 94.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 86.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 82.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed Yes | 27c | 75.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 69.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 30c | 68.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 68.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 29c | 58.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 34c | 57.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 51.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 42c | 44.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 35c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 38.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked No | 71c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked No | 70c | 34.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 67c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 67c | 28.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…0a62backed No | 80c | 28.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 36c | 27.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 73c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.