Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eddd571d2d4b89d5b6c8d68c0d5a35bc7adbe592aab1bec09e84b2df8f1ffb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 1c | 7,990$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1663…2074backed No | 1c | 2,072$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 65c | 1,603$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.56 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,497$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.62 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 1c | 1,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 4c | 1,135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 74c | 978.9$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 3c | 948.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 872.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 871.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 47c | 807.12$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.79 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 49c | 800.76$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.78 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed Yes | 12c | 728.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 337.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 27c | 320.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 15c | 309.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.99 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 308.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 41c | 307.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 302.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 14c | 249.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 71c | 239.69$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 47c | 220.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 213.07$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 23c | 193.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 33c | 142.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…325ebacked No | 18c | 137.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 15c | 137.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…49a7backed Yes | 18c | 124.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 116.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 39c | 113.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 79c | 113.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 111.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…95b0backed No | 63c | 110.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c9…3db2backed No | 72c | 104.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 43c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 77c | 101.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 100.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 100.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 10c | 100.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 51c | 99.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 70c | 97.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 96.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 39c | 95.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 93.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 15c | 93.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 32c | 79.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 79.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 77.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 43c | 77.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 80c | 73.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed No | 32c | 73.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 19c | 65.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 62.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef1…d41cbacked Yes | 67c | 61.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…d3a0backed Yes | 63c | 60.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 43c | 59.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 48c | 59.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked Yes | 42c | 56.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 56c | 50.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 50.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 30c | 48.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 44.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 43.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 31c | 42.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 79c | 40.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…ad9dbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 80c | 39.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 68c | 39.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 37c | 36.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 73c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 34c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed No | 58c | 25.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 70c | 25.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…5c42backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed No | 56c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 21.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…cfc3backed No | 69c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.