TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb708…2f87

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst NFL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$12.8
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+257.1%+$28.8
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$32
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$26
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$15
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+196.6%+$69.6
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$24
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2568%17 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+29%+$5.62
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$7.85
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+141%+$17.55
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$9.5
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.32
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)backed New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.25
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
Spread: Spain (-3.5)backed Saudi Arabia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.2
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.75
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 25 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.5
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.58
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$33.5
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+48.5%+$35.83
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$60.64
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+53.8%+$14
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$27.6
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+240.1%+$35.3
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.01
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$11.1
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+130%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+127.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.8
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+196.3%+$53
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian Statebacked Georgia Southern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Troy vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick67cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draperbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Kyrgios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+25%+$4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+63.9%+$19.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.