Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71b79642318e97ad0efb59a17b2be8df68b683e5b04fc4e17dd8fe167464da5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,521 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe4a…8ecebacked Yes | 2c | 1,524$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 799.08$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 51c | 627.63$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 420$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 34c | 414.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 37c | 409.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 313.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 283.26$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 62c | 232.87$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 24c | 231.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 216.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 74c | 172.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked No | 69c | 138.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 138.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 122.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 75c | 112.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed No | 72c | 112.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 108.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 105.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 49c | 103.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 100.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…103abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 65c | 93.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 80.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 38c | 74.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 46c | 58.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 58.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 49c | 56.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 38c | 55.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 23c | 52.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…d62ebacked Yes | 44c | 40.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed Yes | 44c | 31.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 31.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 34c | 29.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…92f0backed Yes | 47c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 58c | 28.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…f309backed No | 69c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b9b3backed No | 67c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…567ebacked No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…f030backed No | 80c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 58c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 78c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.