Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcb1af475f431c3f48a25a57924dbada589c3e11e854513bf9ade003e8e2f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 3c | 1,707$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 21c | 1,062$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 63c | 794.24$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 586.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 420$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 65c | 266.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 51c | 256.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 57c | 183.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 144.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 80c | 124.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 113.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 100.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 94.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 56c | 66.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 57c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 44c | 56.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 60c | 52.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 37c | 50.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 47.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 32c | 44.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 75c | 43.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 76c | 43.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…25ffbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 58c | 34.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 62c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 47c | 27.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 71c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…87cebacked Yes | 73c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 21.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 51c | 19.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…aadebacked No | 74c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.