Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x730a9e020a8c98c53e5d6c24ce2cd779ccf73a4bf23f1733e38c1a13f50c4775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 0c | 7,091$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 0c | 2,447$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…a72dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,116$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 54c | 802.25$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.02 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 4c | 580.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 59c | 499.9$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 39c | 485.03$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.69 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 36c | 469.56$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 71c | 458.86$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 75c | 432.23$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 28c | 422.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 11c | 411.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 53c | 373.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 320.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 305.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 288.55$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…b4a1backed Yes | 65c | 251.65$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 25c | 244.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b82…6a4fbacked Yes | 49c | 213.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 46c | 203.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 58c | 198.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 43c | 179.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 54c | 176.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 137.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 22c | 135.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 131.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 35c | 127.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 51c | 124.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 63c | 122.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 49c | 115.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 70c | 114.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 60c | 107.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 45c | 104.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 73c | 103.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 44c | 95.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 82.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 14c | 77.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 74.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 70.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 40c | 69.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 67.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 67.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 74c | 66.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 29c | 65.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 16c | 64.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 63.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…08f3backed Yes | 57c | 63.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0e23backed No | 31c | 62.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…95b0backed No | 66c | 58.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 50c | 57.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 46c | 56.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 44c | 56.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…ba37backed Yes | 69c | 55.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 53.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 50.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 33c | 49.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 43c | 44.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 43.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 45c | 42.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 60c | 41.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 73c | 40.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 61c | 39.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 28c | 39.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 65c | 37.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 46c | 34.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 43c | 33.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 55c | 33.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…23acbacked Yes | 78c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 41c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…3110backed No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…c834backed Yes | 40c | 28.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 74c | 28.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 71c | 27.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 76c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 43c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…04c3backed No | 54c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…0a62backed No | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.