Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50eaeeaa509d447b44c91b96894575ee4e4fd0a8beb5968b29db6e980f7fee96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 76c | 934.74$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.6 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 11c | 923.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 67c | 769.03$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.45 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…a72dbacked Yes | 50c | 600.69$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 23c | 291.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 247.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 238.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 229.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 223.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 219.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 67c | 205.06$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 199$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 78c | 159.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d0…2775backed Yes | 65c | 148.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 26c | 143.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 26c | 135.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 23c | 130.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 31c | 125.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 112.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 74c | 104.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 96.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 32c | 94.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…0d65backed Yes | 30c | 91.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 91.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 22c | 90.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 88.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 86.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 83.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 23c | 82.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…49a7backed Yes | 31c | 77.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 76.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 72.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 71.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…2785backed No | 79c | 71.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…1fbbbacked No | 76c | 69.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 33c | 67.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 67.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 29c | 65.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…c88ebacked Yes | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 35c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 55.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 26c | 53.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 78c | 50.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 70c | 49.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 26c | 47.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 46c | 43.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 71c | 42.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 41.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 43c | 39.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 75c | 38.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 38.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 75c | 37.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 73c | 36.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 72c | 36.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 32.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 31.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 55c | 31.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 30.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 59c | 29.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…c056backed Yes | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 63c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 49c | 21.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 75c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 70c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.