Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66cd899c70d615336af3a3f7a4d1aea1fa460ba77aae9e63fa54c276b07d4d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,413 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,908$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,374$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…dcd6backed Yes | 2c | 730.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 10c | 658.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed Yes | 3c | 583.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 544$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 15c | 512.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 435.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 408.43$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 34c | 397.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 377.41$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 356.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 351.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 340.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 320.22$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 312.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 37c | 311.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 33c | 311.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 29c | 285.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 14c | 279.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 260.62$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 255.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 252.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 230.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 217.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 8c | 208.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 199.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 34c | 181.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 157.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 151.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed Yes | 10c | 151.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 70c | 151.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed Yes | 24c | 137.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 11c | 137.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 12c | 126.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 10c | 116.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 9c | 114.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 106.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 32c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 103.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 25c | 100.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 18c | 97.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 33c | 95.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 11c | 93.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 91.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 85.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 84.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 80.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 76.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 39c | 70.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 70.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 37c | 69.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb709…041abacked No | 80c | 69.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 25c | 68.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 67.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 67c | 67.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 69c | 66.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…3644backed Yes | 38c | 65.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 65.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 30c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 54c | 63.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 62.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Yes | 26c | 61.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 33c | 61.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…2ad6backed Yes | 26c | 56.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 75c | 55.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…771ebacked Yes | 41c | 55.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 29c | 54.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 26c | 52.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 51.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed Yes | 34c | 50.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…bb13backed Yes | 40c | 50.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 71c | 49.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 48.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 43c | 46.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 44.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…5b01backed Yes | 24c | 42.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 56c | 40.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…c0a5backed No | 58c | 39.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 37c | 35.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…4ca3backed No | 68c | 35.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…0e86backed No | 62c | 35.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…dc15backed No | 75c | 34.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.