Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d8e8eaebfa726588febfd8692146e29f49f175faaffcfed1309088a9979e934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,603$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1f…00c1backed No | 51c | 8,275$4,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…4249backed Yes | 49c | 8,194$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,015.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…668ebacked No | 51c | 5,147$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…b4efbacked Yes | 49c | 4,553$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…bb13backed Yes | 1c | 2,211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…8862backed No | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489f…88b0backed Yes | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…1ea1backed Yes | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…21dbbacked No | 50c | 2,005$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…e993backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…e07fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…dcd6backed Yes | 5c | 1,218$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 76c | 1,038$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.31 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 711.33$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.59 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa640…d9bbbacked Yes | 49c | 675$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 35c | 610.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.04 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 544.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 45c | 470.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.84 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 414.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 358.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 60c | 356$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 320.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 289.45$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 8c | 281.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 32c | 272.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 60c | 270.51$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…7a18backed Yes | 17c | 270$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 218.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 47c | 213.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 44c | 209.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 16c | 188.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.87 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9820backed Yes | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…aa2bbacked Yes | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 61c | 165.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 152.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…8510backed Yes | 31c | 144$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 58c | 143$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…6458backed No | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 115.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 114.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 104.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 103.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 37c | 92.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 90.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 52c | 89.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 69c | 89.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 86.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 58c | 78.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…3644backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 35c | 73.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 72.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 46c | 70.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 54c | 69.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 74c | 67.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 44c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 70c | 65.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 61.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 73c | 60.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 50c | 59.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…d164backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 37c | 57.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 36c | 55.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…e66abacked No | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 35c | 53.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 42c | 52.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 57c | 51.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…9e9ebacked Yes | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 45.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…fbcbbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 44.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f87…6458backed Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 40c | 42.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…4764backed Yes | 35c | 42.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…9d37backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 30c | 40.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 39.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…815dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.