Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7fdb5b4fdfa68e4d53cc1f973440f42a78b820cdf1276672b77a4612cd156bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,855 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 39c | 5,143$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.44 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.27 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 70c | 1,197$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.47 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 652.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.28 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 20c | 595.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.03 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 544$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 531.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.08 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 438.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.58 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 25c | 391.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.68 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 384.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.72 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 47c | 371.78$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 368.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 11c | 367.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.53 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 12c | 325$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.43 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 308.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 292.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 64c | 245.25$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 196.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 13c | 189.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 12c | 163.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 11c | 145.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 24c | 143$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db4…3a77backed Yes | 14c | 138.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 9c | 132.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 20c | 130.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 118.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…8510backed Yes | 15c | 113.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 17c | 102$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 20c | 98.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 12c | 90.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 15c | 79.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 20c | 66.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.