Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c6dd18573fa9fe4cc44e703e9d35e548baf16f6e878178b89fc83588650ff95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,388 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cfa…6508backed No | 1c | 31,732$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 71c | 1,411$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.82 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,197$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…774cbacked No | 65c | 764.92$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 73c | 627.5$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 58c | 605.11$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.52 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 21c | 448.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 65c | 419.15$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 65c | 348.75$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 23c | 297$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 20c | 294.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 291.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 53c | 282.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 14c | 218.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 16c | 209.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 10c | 203.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 11c | 197.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 43c | 189.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 77c | 165.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 161.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 72c | 155$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 52c | 149.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 142.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 72c | 139.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 71c | 139.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 134.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 58c | 131.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked No | 11c | 129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 12c | 123.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 57c | 120.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 114.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…63f2backed No | 21c | 112$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 61c | 110.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 46c | 108.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 103.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…8aebbacked No | 20c | 91.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 69.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 47c | 62.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 24c | 50.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 51c | 48.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 48c | 48.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…e34bbacked Yes | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…e910backed No | 31c | 41.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 76c | 40.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…adbebacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 79c | 36.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 63c | 35.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 57c | 35.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf06…8882backed Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 33.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked Yes | 57c | 30.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 43c | 30.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…712fbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e719backed Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 45c | 28.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 42c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 54c | 24.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 48c | 23.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…c572backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4770…97f6backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.