Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc4b3c074342b53e3424eb6f71e2c40824f277d17764bd197f1723b1c16ef83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,107 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,003$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.58 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 28c | 1,032$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 765.79$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 569.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 471.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 393.5$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 9c | 327.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 322.9$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 301.72$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 178.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 143.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 9c | 143$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 10c | 131.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 15c | 128.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 119.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 112.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 112.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 17c | 107.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 26c | 105.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 18c | 101.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 100.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 99.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…40ddbacked Yes | 11c | 97.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 84.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 27c | 82.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 79c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 79.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed Yes | 37c | 71.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 27c | 66.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…2565backed Yes | 24c | 65.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 19c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 61.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…6255backed Yes | 17c | 60.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 32c | 57.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed Yes | 39c | 40.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…3022backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 39.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…c94abacked No | 72c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea35…afd9backed No | 73c | 31.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9344…8ea8backed Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf480…f091backed No | 73c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 68c | 24.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…4f5bbacked No | 78c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…4b84backed No | 74c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…32cdbacked No | 73c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 73c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.