Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x188686f0c12cd2097df78ac2b9c53b5e822ba39d383c1c4a4d8773d6a72af944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea7…8e49backed No | 1c | 1,538$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 1,005$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 584.33$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 444.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 11c | 437.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.28 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 7c | 436.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 345.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.61 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 282.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 6c | 239.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 202.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 8c | 199.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 185.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 182.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 79c | 158.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 157.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 80c | 140.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 12c | 116.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 116.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 115.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 23c | 110.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 24c | 105.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 95.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 21c | 90.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 20c | 89.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 84.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 82.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed Yes | 15c | 82.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 78.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 77.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 72c | 74.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 66.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 33c | 64.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 76c | 59.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 45.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 23c | 45.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 54c | 39.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 54c | 35.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 32.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 31.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 76c | 15.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 14.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.