Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d920b41b954a176f47a54ec36f7e0a3a25ed5d81d4efe04ef16771f89a6e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed Yes | 0c | 13,393$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 2c | 4,552$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 66c | 2,021$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.76 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 915.08$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 72c | 552.49$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.28 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 8c | 429.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.18 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 6c | 409.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…03bcbacked Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 23c | 388.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 7c | 352.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.7 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 28c | 334.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 50c | 307.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 225.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 18c | 224.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 196.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 179.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 68c | 176.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 18c | 168.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 65c | 165.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 23c | 163$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 148.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 13c | 143.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 141.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 67c | 119.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 70c | 117.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…e582backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 75c | 98.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 53c | 95.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 48c | 94.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…f05fbacked No | 50c | 90.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 88.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 65c | 88.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes | 67c | 86.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 20c | 86.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 78.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 58c | 77.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 65c | 77.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 36c | 74.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 73.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…2992backed No | 66c | 72.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 75c | 71.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 61c | 70.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 70.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 72c | 70.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 21c | 69.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 66.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 37c | 65.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 37c | 61.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 67c | 60.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 39c | 55.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed Yes | 23c | 55.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 35c | 54.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 52.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 27c | 51.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 22c | 51.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 79c | 49.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 38c | 49.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 38c | 48.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 48.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 36c | 44.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 80c | 43.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 48c | 39.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed Yes | 26c | 38.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 37.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…974bbacked No | 71c | 34.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 72c | 33.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 33.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…015fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 30.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 29.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 66c | 28.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…e9b8backed Yes | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…8c38backed Yes | 72c | 26.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…eee2backed No | 72c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 71c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 71c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 67c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.