Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb735558762fccc0d867ff2efe1213f9a65b26a32ca3ff48eced2323fcc768076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 393.9$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 54c | 353.92$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 348.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 256.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 228.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 43c | 223.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 222.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…d2f1backed Yes | 44c | 204.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 169.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 25c | 153.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 41c | 140.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 135.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 118.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 61c | 113.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 102.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 27c | 101.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…e582backed Yes | 44c | 99.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 43c | 88.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 81.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…2992backed No | 59c | 80.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 79.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 77.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 71.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 27c | 71.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 27c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…02bfbacked No | 77c | 63.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 31c | 58.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 57c | 58.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed Yes | 50c | 57.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 55.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 53.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…4dc0backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 49.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 49.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 48.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…f70dbacked Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 46.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 36c | 46.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 32c | 45.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 37c | 43.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 26c | 43.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 62c | 41.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 43c | 40.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 40.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 43c | 38.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 37.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 66c | 36.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…8c38backed Yes | 31c | 35.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 56c | 31.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2c2bbacked Yes | 45c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 74c | 31.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…c154backed No | 55c | 31.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 29.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 51c | 28.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…ff18backed No | 74c | 28.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 27.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…5808backed No | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 63c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 22.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 63c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 19.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 61c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.