Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8080d592564e0ca83b65df7f84e2c4808b3c271259042a06a16913f4cb738d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,034$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…c81bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,602$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,034$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 16c | 1,617$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.32 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 25c | 1,132$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 554.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 534.24$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 472.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 465.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 25c | 387.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 386.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 357.61$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 344.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 36c | 331.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed Yes | 39c | 291.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…dbbdbacked Yes | 7c | 281.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c7…5c36backed Yes | 30c | 273.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 253.58$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…c331backed Yes | 44c | 216.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked No | 79c | 197.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 72c | 196.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 194.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 31c | 189.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 78c | 187.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…1fbbbacked Yes | 38c | 172.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 70c | 154.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 10c | 141.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 34c | 139.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 72c | 129.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 76c | 127.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 123.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 35c | 121.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 120.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 33c | 120.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 24c | 117.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 67c | 117.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 15c | 113.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 57c | 108.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 30c | 104.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 37c | 96.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 94.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 74c | 94.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 33c | 94.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 70c | 94.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 70c | 91.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 14c | 91.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 89.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 89.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 88.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 34c | 82.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 74.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 39c | 72.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed No | 61c | 69.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 78c | 62.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 41c | 56.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked Yes | 42c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 50.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…24d7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 64c | 47.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 41c | 45.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 23c | 45.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 44.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 39c | 43.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 30c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 66c | 41.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 70c | 40.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…2f87backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 49c | 38.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 35c | 37.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…09d2backed No | 77c | 36.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed No | 77c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 33c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 33.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 32.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…08f3backed Yes | 33c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 37c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 65c | 29.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…c777backed Yes | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 44c | 25.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 53c | 22.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…ab5fbacked No | 63c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.