Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79ce7b01bfc593154194057ceff7d19ac5539b4c2327ef4c408b95f2b6ce303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda45…c81bbacked No | 0c | 18,725$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 0c | 18,265$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,812$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 1,579$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.29 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 48c | 797.26$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 663$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 480.92$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 44c | 331.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.88 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 292.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 9c | 284.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f34…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 265.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 217.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 47c | 167.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 62c | 164.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…d208backed Yes | 43c | 155.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 131.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…2158backed No | 42c | 125.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 39c | 121.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 48c | 116.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 112.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 47c | 111.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 75c | 111.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 109.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 44c | 106.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 44c | 105.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 45c | 105.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 26c | 100.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 79c | 99.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 97.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 44c | 97.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 96.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 44c | 96.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 42c | 84.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 37c | 82.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 40c | 79.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 73.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 41c | 72.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab2…651cbacked Yes | 69c | 70.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 63c | 67.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked Yes | 41c | 66.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed Yes | 77c | 60.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 58.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…08f3backed Yes | 53c | 55.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 36c | 54.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 59c | 52.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…d2c8backed No | 53c | 50.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 50.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 47c | 50.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes | 40c | 47.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 46.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 54c | 44.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 57c | 41.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 71c | 38.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 50c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 31c | 38.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 36.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 43c | 33.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 48c | 32.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 32.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 58c | 30.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…13febacked Yes | 63c | 30.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 37c | 30.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…5534backed Yes | 38c | 27.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 61c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 24.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 49c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 65c | 20.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.