Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2215280b7de63afaff105a0147210d3696a2b52378a0ad4e62daf65758b10c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 1c | 69,698$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.04 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 10,367$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 4,956$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 3,065$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 2,123$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 8c | 1,326$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 5c | 996.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 949.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…46a4backed Yes | 11c | 774.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 10c | 748.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 2c | 685.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 11c | 636.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 71c | 582.41$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 576.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 531.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes | 6c | 494.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 470.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 405$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7b76backed Yes | 11c | 380.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 28c | 379.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 10c | 310.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 9c | 298.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes | 11c | 295.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 12c | 270.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…49f6backed No | 72c | 270.06$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed Yes | 15c | 256.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 9c | 227.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 22c | 209.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…65dcbacked Yes | 28c | 202.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed Yes | 13c | 198.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 12c | 196.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 192.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 20c | 184$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 22c | 177.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 138.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 12c | 136.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 136.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 76c | 129.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 16c | 126.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 80c | 122.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa546…e9f2backed Yes | 11c | 117.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 96.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 26c | 88.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 85.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…09d2backed Yes | 32c | 82.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 26c | 71.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 26c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 72c | 67.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 18c | 64.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 76c | 62.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 30c | 60.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 56.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 25c | 55.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 20c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 77c | 52.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 75c | 52.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 51.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed No | 77c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 68c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.