Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64952378bc15e71aa613ba84e5d15b0551dfc966404b3271be6f62c4b393498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbd…b944backed Yes | 5c | 232.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 10c | 174.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…3167backed Yes | 7c | 155.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 140.66$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 118.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…ee11backed Yes | 40c | 118.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…63c7backed Yes | 22c | 113.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 33c | 103.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…e077backed Yes | 18c | 92.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…795fbacked Yes | 25c | 84.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 23c | 79.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…8501backed Yes | 27c | 73.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 42c | 67.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 66.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 61.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 53c | 61.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 56.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 35c | 54.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…6012backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 44c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 37c | 33.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…c713backed Yes | 35c | 31.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 62c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…7d67backed No | 64c | 26.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 67c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 80c | 19.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 70c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.