Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e020cd7031b55082743bf1da530230477999c51c4ab7f35e9d07599e0fe4b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 66c | 483.89$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 163 | 69.3%113 W · 50 L | +23.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 412.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 718 | 20.1%144 W · 574 L | -47.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…7060backed No | 4c | 277.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 213.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 52c | 190.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 148.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 130.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 117.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 114.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 103.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 36c | 99.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 94.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 43c | 87.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 25c | 80.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 33c | 76.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 72.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 66.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 32c | 65.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 64c | 61.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 59.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 34c | 54.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 71c | 50.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 49.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 57c | 48.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 47.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 44c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 54c | 43.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 72c | 38.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 31.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 55c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 72c | 27.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 27.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 65c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 78c | 19.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 66c | 17.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 75c | 15.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.