Tennis · resolved market
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moeller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95fedbd42e3378f96f13f9d9a5a8bd518127a1f9b518d2d050260530146051cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jannik Sinnerof Jannik Sinner, Elmer Moeller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 30,188$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.53 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 28,419$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.62 | 621 | 40.7%253 W · 368 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 24,936$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.82 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 22,818$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.36 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 22,389$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.17 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Elmer Moeller | 1c | 14,682$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 13,993$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.2 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 13,147$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 5,007$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…3733backed Elmer Moeller | 1c | 4,703$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Elmer Moeller | 1c | 4,630$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 3,119$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 2,895$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…edc2backed Elmer Moeller | 1c | 2,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Elmer Moeller | 1c | 2,687$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 2,585$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed Elmer Moeller | 1c | 2,135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 226 | 2.2%5 W · 221 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…eb16backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 1,966$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,864$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…8d00backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 1,815$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,544$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…e4afbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…e04dbacked Elmer Moeller | 4c | 1,241$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 1,208$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 314 | 63.1%198 W · 116 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9cbdbacked Elmer Moeller | 1c | 1,203$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…5899backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 1,137$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…df7fbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,121$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 108 | 16.7%18 W · 90 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…dd7dbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,022$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Elmer Moeller | 3c | 1,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 130 | 33.8%44 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…abd8backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 1,003$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…69a5backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 941.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 215 | 55.8%120 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 882.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Elmer Moeller | 2c | 839.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 213 | 17.4%37 W · 176 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Elmer Moeller | 3c | 753.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Elmer Moeller | 3c | 715.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Elmer Moeller | 2c | 699.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,077 | 52.4%564 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 687.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c4…df8abacked Elmer Moeller | 3c | 652.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…e0fbbacked Elmer Moeller | 5c | 636.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…2206backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 636.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 108 | 25.9%28 W · 80 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 632.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Elmer Moeller | 4c | 604.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 539.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Elmer Moeller | 3c | 485.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Elmer Moeller | 3c | 346.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moellerthis page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Elmer Moeller: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MoellerSinner won
- Sinner vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.