La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1391f31ffcb56602efd6476b8812302636d432cfa09d2c730bc3a1e556bc669a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecano de Madridof Real Sociedad de Fútbol, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 18c | 486.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 11c | 408.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 13c | 379.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 243.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 18c | 191.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 66c | 186.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 23c | 170.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 33c | 149.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 60c | 43.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 75c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 77c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.