La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec6c88fdb222bc3db090a36ca5774f3c19f20626043b7f37e9587a6a9ce3a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Under | 3c | 3,237$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 1,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 1,007$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 77c | 713.35$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.29 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 708.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…c554backed Over | 77c | 512.31$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Under | 12c | 479.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 31c | 346.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 30c | 316.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 10c | 271.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 23c | 252.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 234.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7843backed Over | 77c | 187.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 24c | 186.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…f353backed Under | 14c | 132.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 136 | 68.4%93 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 23c | 80.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Over | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Over | 77c | 57.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 69c | 51.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 50.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…81dabacked Over | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 78c | 36.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 76c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.