TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3234…8b1abacked Under59c16,638$9,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,816.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over53c7,040$3,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.231181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over31c4,279$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.052,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Under77c3,959$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.891258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c3,331$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over57c2,564$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over23c2,261$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.474916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under49c1,781$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over25c1,581$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over20c954$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.811142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over29c875.39$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5353140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Under50c696.42$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.215100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+124.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed Under75c654.74$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Under31c618.45$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.732250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under51c469.71$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9812560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under40c465.64$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.389052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under67c464.23$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9222245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under63c410.68$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.952729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over21c381.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.025024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over20c357$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.42642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over32c345.73$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.341,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd876…4c8bbacked Over36c333$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.88195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-76.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under47c318.94$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3517852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1388224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over50c250.34$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1927142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over39c245.11$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0522221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under61c227.6$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5164043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over16c208.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3613139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…f13cbacked Over9c196.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Over26c183.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.783557.1%20 W · 15 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+40.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over50c173.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under73c172$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.445345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over11c163.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over23c162.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed Over50c151.59$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.084759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Under52c145.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f96…e7f0backed Over13c126.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+64.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8cc…2e39backed Over42c125.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ecb…26a9backed Under79c123.74$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under80c123.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over60c114.88$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0848658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over21c97.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.556946.4%32 W · 37 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under77c92.92$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9316846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under47c92.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9421355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under29c81.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.784751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c0…7a69backed Over56c79.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under46c78.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffd7…758bbacked Over57c73.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07f5…d680backed Under70c71.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under57c69.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Over47c68.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.852045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca6…08ffbacked Under50c68.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.151040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9857…a505backed Over19c68.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over43c66.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee5b…dac8backed Over17c62.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.661747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Under47c62.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.222152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Under32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Over50c58.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.073748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…bb76backed Over27c55.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under53c55.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-54.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Over46c54.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Over20c52.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Over70c49.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.374042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425b…dbfdbacked Over57c47.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92e…d539backed Under67c43.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6b…68a0backed Over57c42.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x844d…780bbacked Over48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.381526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x790b…5ab8backed Over42c39.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Over32c31.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.073336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95c0…f0c5backed Over36c28.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd254…9858backed Over68c28.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.621883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3092…c9a8backed Over52c28.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over48c27.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1610549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Over65c26.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.136752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x669d…f27abacked Under70c24.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb29a…bbdebacked Under49c23.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcd…ac63backed Under50c21.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.791040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under50c21.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.569265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x491c…b765backed Under79c19.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.155464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd628…a698backed Under79c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.944100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over59c17.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.