Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5fcbaebbd90c892d766f371fe3bdfe618ce0db58bfeb747f32408ee7e1e97e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 58c | 2,504$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Freiburg | 42c | 1,916$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SC Freiburg | 23c | 1,356$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 65c | 716.87$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 573$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 398.71$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed SC Freiburg | 22c | 338$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 60c | 261.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…26a9backed SC Freiburg | 75c | 193.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 187.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.57 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 69c | 142.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 141.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed SC Freiburg | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed SC Freiburg | 76c | 121.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 24c | 118$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed SC Freiburg | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked SC Freiburg | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…0149backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed SC Freiburg | 64c | 73.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 67c | 66.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SC Freiburg | 75c | 51.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked SC Freiburg | 35c | 40.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed SC Freiburg | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0338backed SC Freiburg | 74c | 31.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked SC Freiburg | 36c | 28.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked SC Freiburg | 44c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.