Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x212774adeeb8e4b1e2ccebceaffe3ff65e177876182ad2d734ba9b1a3d9830d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 20c | 13,347$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.5 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 71c | 5,243$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.24 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…042bbacked No | 75c | 2,745$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.24 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 22c | 2,137$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.73 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc5…cc64backed Yes | 17c | 1,742$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 3c | 1,554$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,276$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 62c | 1,257$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 75c | 945.24$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd05c…ea2cbacked No | 60c | 899.5$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa783…0a48backed No | 76c | 684.6$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 679.95$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 635.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed Yes | 17c | 524.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 7c | 499.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 48c | 465.7$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…f5e5backed Yes | 24c | 461.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…29f8backed No | 37c | 353.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.85 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…d756backed No | 45c | 269.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked No | 72c | 229.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…f9cbbacked No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 62c | 178.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 66c | 154.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 77c | 134.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…8e9dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 62c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 25c | 85.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 69c | 74.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a1…3201backed Yes | 45c | 62.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…8333backed No | 69c | 60.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 55.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…039bbacked No | 62c | 34.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…1bf4backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…adf8backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.20 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.