Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.20 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd793522f6b7225d809def141af6b3921d1dc3486e23920b56f1265ce7dd5ac9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 19c | 15,499$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.65 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…9e71backed Yes | 47c | 8,764$4,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,145.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 67c | 8,707$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896.45 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 73c | 3,628$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.59 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 43c | 3,007$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 47c | 1,375$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.27 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…0208backed Yes | 7c | 1,316$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 9c | 907.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 875.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…46d9backed Yes | 19c | 633.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…06bbbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 438.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Yes | 21c | 399.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 70c | 284.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 66c | 270$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa783…0a48backed No | 76c | 216.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 68c | 208.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2de…6aaabacked Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…b191backed Yes | 20c | 169.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 126.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 37c | 112$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 37c | 99.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed No | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed No | 66c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 44c | 91.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…ea74backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9984…d378backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked No | 52c | 61.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 60c | 45.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…a91cbacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…d3e6backed No | 45c | 44.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…e262backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 73c | 39.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…77dfbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…448fbacked Yes | 59c | 27.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ab50backed Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…0f76backed No | 75c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.20 in July?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.