NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603910483c09b2d4feb7fe291178c169d040e0295959a9e51ecc498aaa915925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 9c | 1,699$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 300.4$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 7c | 203.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 78c | 106.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…2410backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…55b8backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…a903backed Yes | 78c | 27.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…61dfbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…3ef7backed Yes | 79c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 73c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 3, 2026?this page
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 13, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 20, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.