NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d20ebcc9784135b47ed19c7bdfebb6bb240211883bb3c148856d097f606e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 7,910$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254e…e722backed No | 5c | 2,585$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 15c | 1,700$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…ff55backed Yes | 16c | 1,686$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +506.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 13c | 943.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.68 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 16c | 924$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 18c | 903.05$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 18c | 754.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 748.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Yes | 42c | 509.22$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.53 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +137%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 54c | 312.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 6c | 307.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 6c | 299.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 9c | 296.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…593abacked No | 9c | 286$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 6c | 257$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…5968backed Yes | 17c | 139.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…4450backed No | 67c | 132.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed No | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Yes | 79c | 106.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…ff96backed No | 69c | 99.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…add3backed No | 68c | 91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed No | 63c | 50.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked No | 31c | 48.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 36c | 41.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 66c | 35.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 38c | 33.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…1ec9backed Yes | 44c | 32.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 77c | 22.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4d40backed No | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +654.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?this page
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 13, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 20, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.