NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3aeccbc1ce91a07e642fb25d391dd872039f83286df7dfca38c64299b9a08a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x254e…e722backed No | 2c | 2,734$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 75c | 1,836$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.81 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 18c | 1,036$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 18c | 766$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 38c | 574.96$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 67c | 527.25$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed No | 16c | 500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 60c | 304.25$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 73c | 275.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…718dbacked No | 61c | 254.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…a6bfbacked No | 17c | 217.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 38c | 202$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…92e9backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed No | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 45c | 129$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 78c | 128.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…be17backed No | 18c | 117.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +117%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 44c | 112.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…1bccbacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 30c | 92.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 45c | 92.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 45c | 90.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…efffbacked Yes | 26c | 89.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed No | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 62c | 65.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 30c | 53.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 64c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf947…016bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?this page
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 13, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 20, 2026?No won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.